2025 Free Agency Analysis

This sign and trade seemed to form fairly quickly after it was first reported to be occurring the morning of this years draft. From the Isles perspective they knew they were taking Matthew Schaefer and that they had to re-sign Alexander Romanov. I'd argue making those moves made the Islanders a worse teams but we can hash through that when I talk about the Romanov extension. 

Montreal had two major needs going in this off-season after a very successful step in their transition from a rebuild to hopeful contention, a top-6 centre and a top-pair defenceman, the latter of which they completed when acquiring Dobson. Dobson bring a complete game to Montreal, offensively he's got a hard shot and his fantastic at getting the puck out, rating in the 95th percentile in exits. Production wise he did take a step back last year going from 70 points to 39, however the Islanders already mediocre offence was also depleted from injuries, and his chance creation was still positive at 5 on 5. 

The part that should get Habs fans excited and where we can now talk about the fit on the Habs is the fact that he is not only right-handed, but also as stout as they come defensively. He figures to pair well with a player like Lane Hutson because offensively they could be a positive boost for each other, but defensively Dobson can allow Hutson to get more creative on offence. There almost no team that is a better fit for Dobson than Montreal. 

Value wise the 9.5M AAV is right what Dobson's value is considering some of the defencemen who recently signed for similar numbers, Dobson is well worth the money. As he is 25, and the Habs are a young team trending upwards, this trade and contract could not come at a better time.

Grade: A

There is no player with a more polarizing discourse than Evan Bouchard, amongst fans, analysts and advanced analytics. Fans seem to be torn on how to value Bouchard because on the offensive side of the ice he is one of the best in the league but his defence is where there seems to be pretty significant disagreement on how good or bad he is in that aspect of the game. His analytical numbers suggest that although he is not spectacular defensively by any stretch, he is still a capable defender in his own end. However, there seems to be a quite extensive highlight reel of what could be perceived as laziness in his own end especially in the corners and in-front of his own net. 

But the analytics actually agree with this sentiment, a large part of the positives in his defensive game are attributed to entry denial's, rather than in zone chance prevention. This is where I have found that assessing his value should be attributed to the countless things that he can do on offence that other defenders cannot, similar to how Erik Karlsson was valued in his prime. There is no question some glaring flaws in his defensive game but his value but the numbers suggest that the good by far outweighs the bad. 

In saying that, Dom assess his market value to be higher than the AAV he ended up getting, largely due to his offensive production. Bouchard fits the Oilers offensive scheme incredibly well due to his passing ability and shot threat. Though the Oilers will have to do some gymnastics to figure out their depth and goaltending issues but this was a necessary contract to keep one of the Oilers most consistent offensive producers in the fold, the lack of term brings the grade down a bit but it makes sense that Bouchard is fishing for a big UFA deal once the cap is in a much different place.

Grade: A-

Intangibles...starting this conversation about Bennett is a tough one, because this was truly his best year and it ended with him winning the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup. The Panthers clearly see him as priceless because never have I seen a career 40 point player get a $64M payday. Are Bennett's intangible qualities worth what the Panthers gave him? Lets unpack.

Starting with the positives, Bennett is an analytical darling. His high-octane play and tenacity create a lot of chances and momentum for his line. What he lacks in outright skill he makes up for with his speed, forechecking and physicality. If the team play seems lacklustre, Bennett can get on the ice and have a shift that puts the ship in the right direction. 

However, the reality is the kind of player he is, a middle-six high energy grinder that is iffy at best defensively, rarely get a payday to this magnitude. The way that the Panthers have created this all-world team is by giving contracts to their top players that were consistently at or under their market value asides from Sergei Bobrovsky who plays a premium position. According to Dom of the Athletic this contract is not only overvaluing Bennett considerably, but is set to age poorly as Bennett enter's his 30's. A career high of 51 points this past year and a remarkable playoff run seem to have made the Panthers believe that this kind of season will be the norm for Bennett. When in reality he's more likely to go back to being a 40 point grinder and extremely inconsistent scorer. 

 Clearly the Panthers see this kind play from Bennett to continue, but even his career best is not worth an $8M AAV. You'd think that in a tax-free state that this number could have been more in the $5.5-6M range, if this a contract in the open market then maybe it could have been excusable but as an extension? It's pretty inexcusable. 

Grabe: C-